OPENING CONTEXT / S&P 500
Read the open. Then the response.
The opening location and first-hour move belong in the same picture.
61%Early lower-band breach · n = 85
3%No early breach · n = 892
Among S&P 500 sessions opening near the previous day’s low, 61% of those with an early lower 1σ breach went on to reach −1.5σ. The rate was 3% without that first-hour breach. The groups contained 85 and 892 sessions respectively.
READING THE FINDING
Read the opening location together with the first-hour response. The corresponding rates of closing inside ±1σ were 42% and 84%. The small 85-session group and rounded percentages limit generalization; this is context, not a standalone trade rule.